The word "golden nine silver ten" circulated in pig breeding circles is now in September. It is now a good time to raise the price of live pigs. But after a substantial increase in August, the price of pork has entered a period of adjustment and adjustment. In the last 20 days, there has been little increase in the price of pork, most of which are down in some areas, and in some areas. Rising, most of the region is stable. On September 21, pig prices stopped rising in 17 provinces, including three falling provinces in Henan, Heilongjiang and Yunnan, and 14 stable provinces mainly in South China, North China and Southwest China. Only 9 provinces, including Shandong, Anhui, Fujian, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hebei, Jilin, Shaanxi and Gansu, remained unchanged. It's going up.
The main reason for the overall stop of the current price of live pigs is the consumer's "resistance" to high-priced pork. The price of pork has risen sharply, and the consumer's consumption capacity is limited. Some of them have turned to relatively cheap poultry and aquatic products, which has led to the decline of pork consumption and the decline of the price of live pigs. Besides, imported meat and frozen meat reserved by the state should not be neglected.
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According to previous media reports, China is expected to import 3.3 million tons of pork in 2019, mainly Denmark, Germany, France, the United States, Chile and other countries. This year's import of pork will be another peak after 2016, and the total import of pork in 2020 is expected to reach a higher level.
The other is the reserve of frozen meat. According to media reports, in the first half of the year, China has carried out five times of pork reserve, each time 100,000 tons. In addition, some places have reserved pork. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, local reserve meat has been put on the market one after another, and in recent days, the central reserve meat will be put on the market, as the title says, the first 33,000 tons. With 100,000 tons of importers and 10,000 tons of reserved meat, the price of live pigs has stopped rising in 17 provinces under the impact of double frozen meat. Will the price of live pigs fall with the continuous increase in the supply of frozen meat?
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As for the price trend of live pigs in the later period, the author is more optimistic. No matter 3.3 million tons of imported meat or 10,000 tons of reserved meat can not fill the domestic pork gap. Besides, the reserved meat needs to be rotated after it is put into the market, and subsequent storage will be carried out. That is to say, the reserved meat does not increase the domestic pork supply. The impact of these two kinds of frozen meat on pig prices is not significant in theory. In the fourth quarter, the production of bacon sausage in the South has entered a real consumption peak. Even if the price of pork is relatively high, the restrictive effect on consumption is not strong, and the price of live pigs is expected to rise sharply again.